Srinagar, Aug 25 (KNO): Climate change is increasing the vulnerability of the Himalayan region, with rising temperatures, changing snow patterns and accelerating glacier retreat posing growing risks to water security and climate-induced hazards in Jammu and Kashmir, according to a new study.
The study, published in 2026 and based on long-term observations and climate projections, found a significant rise in mean annual temperatures across several parts of the Himalayas since the early 20th century.
The researchers used Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data covering 1901-2020 and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models to examine historical and projected changes in temperature and snow conditions across the Himalayan region.
For Jammu and Kashmir, which forms part of the western Himalayas, the findings are particularly significant as the region's glaciers, snowfields and mountain ecosystems play an important role in sustaining rivers and water resources.
According to the study, accessed by the news agency—Kashmir News Observer (KNO), CMIP6 projections indicate substantial warming in high-altitude areas of the Greater Himalayas and Trans-Himalayan ranges by the end of this century, with the magnitude of warming depending on future greenhouse gas emissions.
Under high-emission scenarios, the researchers project considerable changes in surface temperature and snow amount, conditions that could accelerate glacier retreat and alter the timing and availability of meltwater.
The changes could have implications for Jammu and Kashmir, where communities, agriculture, hydropower and ecosystems depend heavily on mountain water resources.
The study also highlighted the growing risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which occur when water accumulated in glacial lakes is suddenly released, potentially sending destructive floodwaters downstream.
The eastern Himalayas have already emerged as a major GLOF risk hotspot, but researchers cautioned that climate-driven changes could alter the geographic distribution of such risks, making improved monitoring important across the Himalayan region.
For J&K, the findings underscore the vulnerability of high-altitude areas and glacier-fed river systems to changes in temperature and precipitation.
The researchers stressed the need for stronger climate monitoring, improved predictive modelling and early-warning systems to prepare Himalayan communities for climate-related hazards.
They also called for enhanced ground-based observations alongside satellite remote sensing to better understand changes in glaciers, seasonal snow cover and high-altitude hydrology.
The study noted that the Himalayas contain more than 15,000 glaciers and provide freshwater to a vast population across South Asia, making changes in the region's cryosphere a concern extending well beyond the mountains.
The researchers said reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains critical, while adaptation measures and better hazard preparedness will be essential to address the increasing vulnerability of Himalayan regions such as Jammu and Kashmir.
The study was authored by Protyusha Mukhopadhyay, T P Sabin, Swagata Payra, Akhouri Pramod Krishna and Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay—(KNO)